Thinking Aloud: Volume XIII, Issue 5: October 1, 2026

This October issue looks at three areas where Bangladesh’s next phase of growth depends on domestic reform: trade policy, revenue mobilisation, and investment. As LDC graduation looms, protected markets, preferential access, and low wages are becoming harder to rely on. Lasting competitiveness will need better incentives, credible fiscal institutions, and an economy that is easier to do business with. Here’s what’s inside:

“Bangladesh’s Trade Policy at a Crossroads: Protection versus Competitiveness” by Selim Raihan

The article highlights a key contradiction in Bangladesh’s trade policy as the country seeks to diversify exports and compete globally, while its trade regime continues to favour protection of the domestic market. While the RMG sector benefited from duty-free access to imported inputs, many potential non-RMG exporters continue to face high tariffs, costly inputs, regulatory barriers, and limited access to trade finance and infrastructure. The article argues that LDC graduation makes these weaknesses more pressing and calls for reducing anti-export bias, rationalising tariffs, strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation, modernising customs, and improving standards and logistics. Trade agreements can create new opportunities, but their benefits will depend on reforms that enable firms to compete effectively in international markets.

“Bangladesh’s Revenue Problem: Where It Stands, and What Would Fix It” by Bazlul Haque Khondker

The article examines Bangladesh’s persistent revenue shortfall, highlighting unrealistic targets, a narrow tax base, widespread exemptions, and weaknesses in tax administration. It argues that repeated target shortfalls increase reliance on borrowing while placing greater pressure on existing taxpayers. The article calls for realistic revenue targets, greater transparency around tax exemptions, a simpler VAT system, and greater attention to taxing immovable wealth. It also highlights the need for a genuinely staffed policy division to strengthen forecasting and tax expenditure analysis. Ultimately, the article argues that sustainable tax reform requires greater transparency, predictability, and public trust.

“How Can Bangladesh Rebuild It’s Investment Story?” by Zubayer Hossen

The article argues that Bangladesh’s traditional investment model, built around low wages and preferential market access, is becoming less sustainable. It identifies three priorities for rebuilding investor confidence: faster logistics, predictable rules, and a more skilled workforce. While existing investors continue to expand, limited new investment suggests that longstanding constraints remain. The article highlights port efficiency, streamlined investment services, reliable energy, and industry-focused skills development as key areas for reform. It argues that Bangladesh’s future competitiveness cannot depend on lower costs alone. Instead, the country must become easier to do business with, ensuring efficient logistics, policy predictability, and a workforce capable of supporting higher-value industries.

Across trade, taxation, and investment, this issue of Thinking Aloud points to the same conclusion: protection and preferences cannot substitute for competitiveness. Reducing anti-export bias, broadening the domestic tax base, and making the investment climate more predictable are closely linked, and progress on one makes the others easier. Dive into the insights!