Thinking Aloud: Volume XIII, Issue 2: July 1, 2026
The July issue turns to Bangladesh’s FY2026-27 national budget and asks the question that matters most: not what it promises, but what it can actually deliver. From fiscal discipline to the energy transition to education and health spending, this issue examines where the budget’s ambitions meet the constraints of implementation. Here’s what’s inside:
“Budget Reform Must Start With What Is Feasible” by Selim Raihan
The article argues that the budget has good intentions but has not identified the right policy instruments. Five challenges have been building for years — high inflation, weak revenue mobilisation, pressure from debt servicing, a fragile banking sector, and stagnant private investment, and the room for mistakes is now very small. High targets on revenue are set and missed every year, so honest projections and transparency on tax incentives are overdue. Tax enforcement keeps falling on small traders rather than wealthy evaders. Borrowing should be selective, projects screened properly, and ADP progress tracked quarterly. Education and health need outcomes tied to money, not just bigger allocations. Banks should not get public funds without audits and accountability first. The budget needs to stop listing aspirations and start making hard choices.
“Bangladesh’s Green Budget: A Step Forward, But Not Far Enough” by Md. Tuhin Ahmed and Mohammad Iftekharul Islam
The article shows that Bangladesh’s green budget gestures toward an energy transition but does not go far enough. Solar tax measures are welcome but restricted to a narrow group, leaving out most of the supply chain, while diesel irrigation, solar street lighting, and wind energy receive nothing. EV tax reductions send the right signal but lack follow-through. The battery manufacturing exemption closes in 2028, far too short to build a competitive industry. Most critically, the LNG VAT exemption and capacity payments continue subsidising the fossil fuels the budget claims to be phasing out. A government serious about energy transition cannot keep propping up the system it seeks to replace.
“Beyond Bigger Budgets: Can Higher Spending Deliver Better Education and Healthcare?” by Nafis Mubarrat
The article highlights that the FY2026-27 budget raises spending on education and health, but more money won’t help unless implementation problems are fixed. Health sector is shifting toward prevention and digital tools like the Health Card, though out-of-pocket costs remain very high and need risk-pooling and progress toward universal coverage, not just primary care fixes. Education is shifting toward learning quality, technical skills, and digital access, with gains like free education for girls, though VAT on schools and textbook duties work against affordability. The real test is not how much is spent, but whether it actually improves outcomes.
As Bangladesh’s FY2026-27 budget moves from paper to practice, much will depend on what gets implemented, not just what was announced. This issue of Thinking Aloud traces that gap across fiscal policy, the green transition, and social spending, asking what it will take to turn allocations into outcomes. Dive into the insights!
