Working Paper Series
“Beyond Fossil Fuels: Charting a Sustainable Transport Pathway for Bangladesh”
Citation: Raihan, S., Khan, F., and Pal, B.D. (2026). Beyond Fossil Fuels: Charting a Sustainable Transport Pathway for Bangladesh. SANEM-IFPRI Working Paper Series. SANEM Publications, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Abstract: Bangladesh’s transport sector is at a pivotal moment, essential for growth, trade, mobility, and employment, yet increasingly strained by rising emissions and mounting climate risks. The sector employs millions and contributes about 15 percent of national emissions, driven by rapid urbanisation, road dependence, and fossil fuel use. Climate hazards—floods, cyclones, storm surges, salinity, landslides, and heat stress—are already damaging roads and railways, causing annual losses and deepening social inequalities in mobility access. The paper shows that road dominance and oil dependence are pushing emissions upward while rail and waterways remain underused. Under NDC 3.0, Bangladesh has introduced transport mitigation targets, including electric buses, metro and BRT expansion, railway electrification, and improved fuel efficiency, but implementation is challenged by fragmented policies, weak coordination, and uncertain climate finance. Using a dynamic CGE model, the study finds that green transport interventions—especially rapid transit, electric buses, and railway upgrades—can raise GDP, create over two million jobs, reduce poverty, and ease congestion, with rapid transit delivering the largest economic gains. The paper concludes that Bangladesh needs a coherent, climate‑resilient transport strategy centred on public and mass transit, multimodal systems, cleaner vehicles, reliable charging infrastructure, and strong institutional capacity. Done well, transport transformation can cut emissions while boosting productivity, reducing congestion costs, improving air quality, and supporting a more inclusive development path.
