Working Paper Series
“Adapting to Survive: Climate Change and Bangladesh’s Agricultural Imperative”
Citation: Raihan, S., Tasneem, S., and Pal, B.D. (2026). Adapting to Survive: Climate Change and Bangladesh’s Agricultural Imperative. SANEM-IFPRI Working Paper Series. SANEM Publications, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Abstract: Bangladesh’s agriculture sector lies at the heart of its development and climate challenge, simultaneously supporting livelihoods and food security while remaining highly exposed to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, floods, droughts, cyclones, and salinity intrusion. The paper argues that agriculture must be treated as both a vulnerable sector and a major emissions source, making its transformation essential for climate resilience, food security, and rural development. Climate impacts are already visible, with extreme events damaging land, raising food prices, and affecting millions of smallholders who produce most of the country’s food. Vulnerability varies across regions, requiring locally tailored adaptation rather than uniform national packages. Agriculture’s emissions profile—driven by intensive rice cultivation, fertiliser use, and livestock—also presents opportunities for mitigation through climate‑smart practices. While Bangladesh has strong policy frameworks, implementation gaps persist, especially in coordination, financing, and field‑level delivery. Using a dynamic CGE model, the study shows that interventions such as solar irrigation, climate‑smart rice, improved livestock management, and expanded forestry can raise GDP, create jobs, and reduce poverty by 2035, with the combined package delivering the strongest gains. The paper concludes that Bangladesh’s agricultural transition must integrate adaptation, mitigation, and rural development, scaling practical measures like solar irrigation and stress‑tolerant crops while pursuing longer‑term shifts in crop diversification, value chains, and institutional capacity, supported by predictable climate finance and stronger implementation systems.
