Thinking Aloud: Volume XII, Issue 8: January 1, 2026

The January issue explores Bangladesh’s economic crossroads, from fragile recovery and rising poverty risks to the urgent need for structural reform and a new social contract for workers, laying out the choices that will shape stability, inclusion, and growth in the year ahead. Here’s what’s inside:

“The Illusion of Recovery: Bangladesh’s Economy on the Eve of 2026” by Selim Raihan

The article argues that Bangladesh’s apparent economic recovery is fragile and misleading, as the economy remains burdened by slow growth, high inflation, a weakened banking sector, and falling investor confidence. Rising living costs continue to erode household incomes, while tight credit driven by stressed banks and high interest rates has suppressed private investment and job creation. Political uncertainty and declining law and order have further intensified the investment freeze, raising the cost of doing business. The article concludes that the February 2026 election represents a crucial opportunity to restore confidence and implement overdue economic reforms.

“Bangladesh’s Poverty Reversal: Causes and Policy Priorities” by Mahtab Uddin

The article explores how Bangladesh reduced poverty sharply by 2019, but COVID-19 and the subsequent inflationary period exposed how many households remained only marginally above the poverty line. The article argues that recent reversals reflect structural gaps in targeting, human capital, job creation, and governance. It calls for a functioning household registry, better quality education and healthcare backed by adequate social protection, faster diversification beyond garments to create formal jobs, and stronger rule of law and service delivery. Without these reforms, shocks will keep pushing a large vulnerable group back into poverty.

“A New Social Contract for Workers in Bangladesh” by Zubayer Hossen

The article calls for a new social contract in Bangladesh to ensure workers’ dignity, security, and long-term well-being. Despite industrial progress, workers still face low wages, weak protection, informality, and limited rights, which undermine social stability. The author argues that true sustainability and ESG commitments require treating labour as a partner in value creation, supported by reforms in living wages, social protection, workplace safety, skills development, and social dialogue. Without rebuilding trust between workers, employers, and the state, inclusive growth will remain out of reach.

Bangladesh now stands at a decisive economic moment, grappling with fragile recovery, rising poverty risks, and growing pressure to redefine the future of work. This issue of Thinking Aloud explores how economic reforms can help restore confidence and build a more inclusive and stable future. Happy New Year!