The 7^th Episode in the online discussion series SANEM Shongzog, titled “Covid-19 and Social Protection Programmes in Bangladesh” was held on July 29, 2020, at 6.00 PM, Bangladesh Time. Moderated by Dr. Selim Raihan, Executive Director of SANEM and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, the webinar had Mr. Tommo Hozumi, UNICEF Country Representative in Bangladesh, as a special guest. The presentation was delivered by Dr. Bazlul Haque Khondker, Chairman, SANEM, and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka. The expert panel included Mr. Md. Azizul Alam, Additional Secretary, Finance Division, Ministry of Finance, Government of People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dr. Sayema Haque Bidisha, Research Director, SANEM, and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, and Ms. Aneeka Rahman, Senior Social Protection Economist, World Bank. Conducted over the video conferencing app Zoom, the webinar was also streamed live on SANEM’s Facebook page. Around 50 academicians, development practitioners, journalists, and students from diverse backgrounds joined the webinar.

In his introductory remarks, Dr. Selim Raihan said that conventional measures fail to identify the poor and social protection programmes are intended to complement the poverty reduction programme. In his discussion, he addressed aspects such as the proportion of GDP spending on social protection, the capacity of the government, and different approaches to social protection programmes. He briefly explained the scenario of social protection schemes in Bangladesh.

In his keynote presentation, Dr. Bazlul Haque Khondker presented the pre-Covid macroeconomic scenario of Bangladesh and pointed out that despite strong performances in macroeconomic indices, the Gini coefficient has also been rising which indicates that inequality has been on the rise. He discussed the features and concerns of the existing social protection system in Bangladesh. Dr. Khondker drew attention to the incredibly high exclusion error—70%, which denotes the proportion of actual poor wrongly classified as “non-poor”. The presentation brought up issues of discrepancies in urban and rural coverage of social protection programmes and inadequateness of coverage in proportion to poverty. There is a mismatch between demography and Social Protection spending, Dr. Khondker pointed out. While only 2% of the Social Protection Budget is allocated for the children aged 0-5 who is 9% of the population, 72% of the Social Protection Budget is allocated for the elderly who are only 8% of the population. He also presented a brief assessment of the impacts of the pandemic on the country’s GDP growth, household poverty, and income. A brief overview of the global approach to Social Protection responses in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic was highlighted in the presentation. In evaluating the Bangladesh Government’s Social Protection response, he pointed out that under normal circumstances almost 60% of the population are excluded from the social protection coverage. He remarked that so far, the government’s fiscal response has not been sufficient. A rapid, bold, broad-based, and forward-looking response is needed, he said. To alleviate the social protection scenario in Bangladesh, Dr. Khondker recommended preparing a robust database using NHD/IMS/NID/other relevant digital indicators, increasing coverage (Universal Child Grant and old-age allowance), aligning demography/location with Social Protection spending, introducing contributory pension, expanding G2P payment to 100%, improving monitoring and evaluation and setting a time-bound implementation plan for National Social Security Strategy.

In her discussion, Ms. Aneeka Rahman stressed on strengthening the health system and resilient recovery. She discussed the shock responsiveness of the social protection programmes and suggested that financing needs to be more flexible. She recommended identifying projects which can be deprioritized and channeling the funds to areas of concern. Ms. Rahman pointed out that while transfers are being made to accounts of the beneficiaries, the beneficiaries are often not being able to access those funds due to the location of the banking facilities, traveling where increases the risk of infection for the beneficiaries. She stressed on improving the identification of beneficiaries and delivery system of transfer. She also suggested readjusting existing programs to take into account the demands of the current context.

Dr. Sayema Haque Bidisha put emphasis on the inclusion of returning migrant workers in the local economy. She also expressed her concern about the low numbers of social protection programs, only 6-7 out of 140-145 programs, targeting urban slums. Dr. Bidisha explained the necessity of an updated database and reduction of exclusion error. Evaluation and monitoring of the programmes are also necessary, she remarked. She suggested undertaking specific projects for identification, targeting, and monitoring. In answer to a question, Dr. Bidisha pointed out that out of pocket expenditure for health in Bangladesh is one of the highest in the world. Therefore, there is no alternative to developing the healthcare system. She also called for proper guidelines and measures to ensure accountability for private health care. She proposed instituting an unemployment benefits program at least for a few months and an unemployment register for that purpose.

Mr. Md. Azizul Alam shed light on the history of social protection programmes in Bangladesh. Discussing the targeting problem, he explained that many programs do not differentiate between poor and non-poor, such as the school stipend program. He expressed hope that the situation would improve once the National Household Database is complete. Mr. Alam informed the audience of the government initiatives to expand the social protection programs. While the government was ready to initiate the universal system, the pandemic has obstructed the implementation process. In the current fiscal area, a hundred most poverty hit upazilla will be provided with universal old-age allowance and women allowance. Mr. Alam remarked that most social protection programs are less related to the labour market, but establishing this relationship is a concern. He also expressed hope that using technology, Bangladesh can solve the problem of inclusion and exclusion errors.

Dr. Khondker responded to Mr. Alam’s discussion and said that only technology will not be enough for solving the issues of exclusion and inclusion errors; political will is more important in this regard.

Agreeing with Dr. Khondker, Dr. Raihan remarked that, while the use of technology and relevant mechanisms are necessary conditions for an effective and comprehensive social protection program, they are not sufficient. Therefore, political will is quintessential.

In the speech of Special Guest, Mr. Tommo Hozumi said that the current pandemic has given us an opportunity to reflect on our development path. Discussing the issue of exclusion error, he said such error is not an exception, rather part of a global norm. Therefore, he suggested, a more universal approach needs to be adopted. Mr. Hozumi stressed on the importance of Universal Child Grant. He cited the examples of France and Japan and compared the demographic trends of these countries with Bangladesh. He added that for full utilization of Bangladesh’s demographic dividend, investing in the children is essential and in that regard, Universal Child Grant is highly important.

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