The seventh episode of SANEM Netizen Forum on COVID-19 Pandemic took place on June 2, 2020, Tuesday, at 7 pm. Moderated by Dr. Selim Raihan, Executive Director, SANEM and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, the forum was attended by around 50 participants of diverse backgrounds. The SANEM Panel included Dr. Sayema Haque Bidisha, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka and Research Director, SANEM, Mr. Mahtab Uddin, Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka and Research Fellow, Ms. Eshrat Sharmin, Research Associate, SANEM, Ms. Mir Ashrafun Nahar, Research Associate, SANEM, and Ms. Fabiha Bushra Khan, Research Associate, SANEM. The episode was live-streamed on the Facebook page of SANEM.

In his introductory remarks, Dr. Raihan expressed his concern regarding the decision of lifting lockdown in Bangladesh. He said that the decision to open up has not been properly planned. Each day the number of infected cases and deaths is increasing. Other countries did not ease lockdown measures in this way. He reiterated the need for developing and implementing region-wise and sector-wise health protocols. He further explained that unplanned opening up will induce huge cost in the near future and may leave us with no choice but to impose a harder version of lockdown in the later days; thus, it is not possible to minimize economic costs by lifting lockdown. While policies like marking zones on the basis of the spread of disease are appreciated, such policies should have been undertaken long before the lifting of lockdown. Dr. Raihan also discussed the upcoming budget and said that the present context demands a special approach in Budget with a focus on health, social protection and agriculture. He also opined that the implementation processes of the stimulus package with clear guidelines and monitoring mechanisms must be outlined in the budget.  It is highly important that the targeted poor and vulnerable receive the benefit of the stimulus packages. Explaining the procedures of the proposed budget, revised budget and actual budget, he pointed out that information about the actual budget becomes available after 1.5 years of the proposed budget. According to SANEM’s analysis, only 77-78% of the proposed budget is actually implemented. The government has maintained 4-5% of the budget deficit over the last decade. This has been possible, because, Bangladesh spends the least on public health, education and social protection. This is not conducive for human capital development. He explained that Bangladesh is kind of habituated in spending less in these sectors, but it is now highly important to prioritize these sectors. However, the ministries’ capacity to spend the increased allocation is a demanding question. Thus, without developing the capacity of the ministries, the increased allocation will not bear any fruit.

Dr. Raihan remarked that unnecessary government expenditure must be cut down. Also, there should be a prioritization even among the mega projects. While the growth rate has always been a concern, attention must be given to PIE—Poverty, Inequality, Employment. All these three indicators are in bad shape under the current crisis. He urged that regular updates on the disbursement of the stimulus package be given, so that transparency and accountability can be maintained. Dr. Raihan also explained that due to shock to both demand and supply side, the economy is in a very vulnerable position and Bangladesh’s achievement in poverty reduction face threat of being overturned.

The forum discussed the following suggestions and proposals.

 1. The life vs. livelihood debate is undermining the importance of life. The discussion should rather be on how both can be maintained at the same time. While people of the upper echelon of the society can afford to stay at home, the poor are forced to go out to earn a living and therefore are at greater risk. If the bread-earner of such a family gets affected by the corona virus and dies eventually, the whole family faces the risk of sliding below the poverty line, which may cause generational poverty.

2. Proper implementation of the budget allocation in health, education, and agriculture is essential. At the same time evaluation and monitoring of the budget is important. The budget should be COVID-19 centric. The budget should address the plight of small-scale enterprises and have a special focus on the youth, women, and other marginalized communities. 

3. Rent seekers must be controlled and brought to justice; otherwise, embezzlement of the stimulus package is a possibility, which will affect the poor most. To counter the culture of corruption and ensure accountability the disbursement of the stimulus package must be monitored closely. Political will is of utmost importance in this regard.

4. There are two ways to reach Herd Immunity. One way is to vaccinate and immunize everyone. Another is through the exposure of a certain percentage of the population so that the population can develop antibodies. However, herd immunity through exposure can backfire in overpopulated countries like ours. 30-70% of the population has to be infected with the virus to reach herd immunity. Even if only 30% of the Bangladeshi population, which is 5 crore people, gets infected, the health system will be overflowed. As a consequence, many will not be able to get treatment and face death.

5. Capturing the investments deflecting from China would be quite difficult, given, that the existing business and investment the environment has major shortcomings. Also, if the country cannot tackle the COVID-19 situation effectively, it would not be possible to attract those investments even by offering extra benefits.

6. In the post COVID scenario, the investment opportunities in pharmaceutical industries in Bangladesh have to be utilized.

7. Laying off workers and employees must be stopped. The government should take some steps to make private companies more accountable.

8. A database containing information of the poor and the vulnerable should be maintained. The challenge for Social Protection The program is to include the newly poor and vulnerable and the people in the informal sector. The budget must focus on the poor living in slums.

9. Along with the stimulus package for agriculture, the focus must be given on the agricultural supply chain.

List of Participants : 

1. Dr. Selim Raihan, Executive Director, SANEM, and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

2. Dr. Sayema Haque Bidisha, Research Director, South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

3. Mahtab Uddin, Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, and Research Economist, SANEM

4. Eshrat Sharmin, Senior Research Associate, SANEM

5. Mir Ashrafun Nahar, Research Associate, SANEM

6. Md. Jonaed, Research Assoacite, SANEM

7. Fabiha Bushra Khan, Research Assoacite, SANEM

8. Jabunnaher, Research Assoacite, SANEM

9. Sakil Ahmmed, Research Assoacite, SANEM

10. Wasik Sajid Khan, Lecturer, Bangladesh University of Professionals

11. Tanjim-Ul-Islam, Student, University of Dhaka

12. Tamanna Firdaus, Student, Begum Badrunnesa Govt Girls College

13. Shithee Ahmed, Student, Bangladesh University of Professionals

14. Mini Akter, President, Astha Proitbandhi Nari Parishad Faridpur

15. Arefin Noman, Monitoring & Documentation Officer, RHSTEP

16. Rafiul Ahmed, Student, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology

17. Md. Rashidul Alom, Procurement Specialist, BHTPAICT Division

18. Abdullah Al Zaiem, Student, East West University

19. Shihab Uddin Suman, Student, University of Dhaka

20. Md. Taher, Student, University of Dhaka

21. Ashib Uddin Emo, Student, Jagannath University

22. Zahin Ferdous Maesha, Student, Bangladesh University of Professionals

23.Kazi Aiman Udoy, Student, University of Dhaka

24. Tanvi Islam, Student, East West University

25. G.M. Atik Shahriar, Student , University of Dhaka

26. Sultana Jahan, Student ,Jahangirnagar university

27. Farjana Eyasmin, Lecturer, Pabna University of Science and Technology

28. Suraiya Begum Ruhi,Student,Shahjalal University of Science and Technology

29. Sabrina Shanta,Student,Pabna University of Science and Technology

30. Sayed Arafat Zubayer,Student,Shahjalal University of Science and Technology

31. Md. Habibullah Emon,Student,North South University

32. Afia Mubasshira Tiasha,Student, Jagannath University

33. Aeon Sarker,Student,Brac University

34. Md Aiyob Ali,Student,University of Chittagong

35. Fatiha Nusrat,Student,Shahjalal University of Science and Technology

36. Inzamamul Haque Khan Alvy,Student,University of Dhaka

37. Taslima Begum,Student,Shahjalal University of Science and Technology

38. Nafis Mubarrat,Student,University of Dhaka

39. Shadman Sakib Zahin,Student,University of Dhaka

40. Faisal Ahmmed, Student,University of Dhaka

41. Ramisa Mahmuda, Student, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology

42. Mohammad Sadequr Rahman, Assistant Vice president, Southeast Bank Limited

43. Kazi Zaved Khalid Pasha, Coordinator, Initiative for Right View

44. Nawshin Tasfia Audri, Student, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology

45. Salman Ibn Yasin, Student, Pabna University of Science and Technology

46. Hasan Jamil, Student, International Islamic University Chittagong

47. Salma Akhter, Professor, University of Dhaka

48. Fahima Akter Sanjida, Student, University of Chittagong