The eighth episode of SANEM Netizen Forum on COVID-19 Pandemic took place today at 11 am. Moderated by Dr. Selim Raihan, Executive Director, SANEM and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, the forum was attended by around 45 academicians, researchers, journalists, entrepreneurs, students and other participants of diverse background from all around the country. The SANEM Panel included Dr. Sayema Haque Bidisha, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka and Research Director, SANEM, Mr. Mahtab Uddin, Research Economist, SANEM and Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, Ms. Eshrat Sharmin, Senior Research Associate, SANEM, and Ms. Fabiha Bushra Khan, Research Associate, SANEM. The episode was live-streamed on the Facebook page of SANEM. Dr. Raihan delivered a presentation on the socio-economic challenges induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and the overall pandemic situation in Bangladesh. In his presentation it was pointed out that while the country’s testing capacity has increased, the number of tests has not increased proportionately although experts have opined that daily 20 thousand tests are necessary; there has been a lack of cooperation in this regard. The overall situation in public health does not look encouraging as there has been mismanagement in the implementation of lockdown and a lack of proper information and data. Widespread corruption must be addressed through strict measures; however, past history in that regard is not encouraging either. In the current situation, it seems, the only way out is the fast discovery of a vaccine.The presentation identified the areas of concern regarding Bangladesh’s economy. Dr. Raihan pointed out that a decrease in imports will affect private sector investment. He also said that economists and experts fear that recent record flow of remittance indicates that the immigrant workers are sending home even their savings. Mass repatriation of immigrant workers is becoming a reality each day. As the prospect of world economic recovery is not bright, it seems both export and remittance will continue to be experiencing a downward trend. In discussing the usage of the foreign reserve of Bangladesh, Dr. Raihan referred to the initiative of Sovereign Bond, which was proposed a few years ago but later not continued, might be an option. However, it should be done cautiously as import and other costs may rise in the coming days. Dr. Raihan discussed the issue of inflation and remarked that the real wage has fallen. Pointing out that there has been a depletion of capital stock for the self-employed, he said that the self-employed might not be able to retain their jobs, and therefore budgetary support is required in this regard. He also said that as existing entrepreneurs are facing difficulties in staying in the market, opportunities for new entrepreneurs are shrinking. Addressing the job loss in manufacturing and garments, he pointed out that a reverse migration trend has emerged as low-income families are moving to rural areas from urban areas, where they might not be able to find employment. This reverse migration trend may create social challenges too.

Bangladesh’s announcement of a huge stimulus package has been followed by a slow disbursement. Dr. Raihan opined that financing MSMEs through banks might be more difficult and rather microfinance institutions can be involved in that regard. Raising the question of whether the stimulus package can be properly implemented, given the institutional shortcomings in the Banking sector, he said that reliance on the banking sector might obstruct the distribution of the stimulus package. He also emphasized the necessity of a monitoring mechanism comprised of civil society elements and NGOs. In his presentation Dr. Raihan highlighted the importance of strong institutions in rebuilding the health sector, banking sector, and taxation. He remarked that the revenue target set in the budget was not realistic and there has been no structural reformation in taxations to follow through. Bangladesh’s challenges in the management of crisis and economic shock stem from a void of strong institutions. While it is not possible to overcome the institutional barriers overnight, steps in the right direction are important.

The forum discussed the following suggestions and proposals.

• The reverse migration trend induced by the economic hardships in urban areas entails the emergence of new socio-economic challenges in the rural areas as rural wages can be adversely affected, children’s education can be hampered, drop-out rates can increase, cases of early marriage can rise and gender disparity can widen. To address such long term impacts on human capital, the development of rural infrastructure and utility along with decentralization is necessary. On the other hand, this reverse migration can create opportunities for agricultural entrepreneurs. It is, however, also important to remember that generating employment in rural areas would be difficult as well since private sector investment has driven down due to the fragile state of the banking sector and low export. ICT Division in cooperation with the local government can create opportunities for the youth in rural areas in this context. It can also be expected that if the situation returns to normal rather earlier, the people migrating to rural areas would return to cities.

• For the stimulus package announced for MSMEs to be effective, loan conditions have to be flexible. Classification of these loans is also not profitable. The interest rate is also an issue of concern for entrepreneurs who have lost their capital stock.

• The pandemic should not shift the focus away from utilizing the demographic dividend as that window will in 10-15 years. As generating employment through private sector investment will be difficult, self-employment has to be facilitated. But access to credit is an obstacle in this regard. Last year, a tk. 100 crore fund for the development of youth was introduced in the budget, which has not been included in the budget of this financial year. Food business, online training, and tuition programs and similar initiatives that would require a small capital have to be explored by the youth.

• While Bangladesh should focus on attracting the FDIs deflecting from China, it must be remembered that Special Economic Zones would not be enough in that case. Improvement in Logistics Performance Indicators, port mechanisms, and human capital is all the more important.

• While the number of tests must be increased, there can be no compromise with the standards of testing. Lack of cooperation in enforcing public health protocol is evident. This needs to be addressed immediately.

• Database containing information of the poor and government programs for addressing the crisis needs to be established. Access to the database might help to ensure transparency, accountability, and greater efficiency.

• Austerity measures, such as a cut in salaries of top officials of government and private institutions, in order to retain low skill jobs, should be contemplated as this can ensure job security for low-income people and help them to survive.

• Collections and sale of leather in this season of Eid-ul-Adha will be difficult. However, its economic significance is beyond debate and therefore concerted efforts facilitating the leather enterprise should be undertaken.

 

List of Participants : <

1. Dr. Selim Raihan, Executive Director, SANEM, and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

2. Dr. Sayema Haque Bidisha, Research Director, South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

3. Mahtab Uddin, Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, and Research Economist, SANEM

4. Eshrat Sharmin, Senior Research Associate, SANEM

5. Mir Ashrafun Nahar, Research Associate, SANEM

6. Md. Jonaed, Research Assoacite, SANEM

7. Fabiha Bushra Khan, Research Assoacite, SANEM

8. Jabunnaher, Research Assoacite, SANEM

9. Sakil Ahmmed, Research Assoacite, SANEM

10. Mini Akter,President,Astha proitbandhi nari parishad Faridpur

11. Afia Mubasshira Tiasha,Student,Jagannath University 

12. Kazi Aiman Udoy,Student,Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

13. Shamima Akter,Student,Hamdard University Bangladesh 

14. Wasik Sajid Khan, Lecturer,Bangladesh University of Professionals    

15. Nawshin Tasfia Audri,Student,Shahjalal University of Science and Technology     

16. Rafiul Ahmed,Student, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology   

17. Muhammad Jonaeid Ali,Student,State University of Bangladesh

18. Ashib Uddin Emo, Student,Jagannath University

19. Abir Mahmud, Student, Jagannath University

20. Sadia Afrin Anika, Student,Bangladesh University of Professionals

21. Basirul Fahad Chowdhury, Student, University of Asia Pacific(UAP)

22. Muhammad Sarwar Zaman, Principal Officer, Sonali Bank Limited  

23. Fatiha Nusrat, Student, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology    

24. Muhammad Qawi Hossain, Student, Bangladesh University of Professionals

25. Farjana Eyasmin, Lecturer, Pabna University of Science and Technology    

26. Mohammad Istiak Rahman Niloy, Student, Independent University Bangladesh   

27. Najia Tasnim, Student, Jahangirnagar University

28. Rokeya Begum Shefali, Executive Director, Aid-Comilla

29. Abu Salah Md Shakir, Student, University of Dhaka 

30. Shifatul Islam Anik, Student, Pabna university of science and technology     

31. Arifa Akter Tangina, Student, Comilla University

32. Shovon Roy, lecturer, Sheikh Hasina University

33. Shadique Mahbub Islam, Student, Dhaka University

34. Tanvir Istiak Tonmoy, Student, National University, Bangladesh

35. Sovik Mukherjee, Assistant Professor of Economics, St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata.

36. M. A. Shaleh Sadiq, Assistant Consultant, EQMS Consulting Limited

37. Joyen Uddin Sarker Tonmoy, Student, Dhaka University

38. Hasib Bin Mosharrof, Student, Stamford University Bangladesh

39. Jannati Bushaira, Student, University of Dhaka 

40. Ishrat Zahan Muni, MBBS Student, BGC Trust Medical College

41. Fatema Israt Juthi, Student, University Of Dhaka 

42. Kazi Mahir Tajwar, Student, Jahangirnagar University

43. Julekha Akter, Youth leader, Nari Moitree

44. Md Shoriful Islam, Student, University of Dhaka    

45. Aminul Islam, Senior Manager, Market Development, BRAC

46. Sk Mojibul Huq, Programme Manager, BRAC

47. Alamgir Kabir , Nation Youth Advisory Panel Member & Country Management Team member, Plan International Bangladesh