The third episode of SANEM Netizen Forum on COVID-19 Pandemic took place on April 17, 2020, Friday, at 4 pm. The online meeting was moderated by Dr. Selim Raihan, Executive Director, SANEM and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka. Dr. Raihan began by discussing the current situation of the pandemic. He said that, the current pandemic has revealed the weakness of our health sector and after the pandemic there is a need to raise demand for more investment in health sector. Noting that Bangladesh has enough food for the next 3-4 months he expressed his concern that distribution of food among the poor is becoming increasingly difficult as many are hoarding food. In regard to this, weakness in government machinery is evident. To overcome these shortcomings the private sector, NGOs and civil society has to be involved in relief package and food distribution programs.

Dr. Raihan explained that although Bangladesh’s stimulus package is highest in South Asia, in terms of percentage of GDP, announcement of the package is hardly enough. Since Bangladesh has never handled such a huge stimulus package, there are three areas of concern: financing, distribution and monitoring.

Dr. Raihan then informed the forum of SANEM’s proposals regarding the financing of the stimulus package. There are four sources from which the country can finance the stimulus package: 1) Cutting cost of unnecessary projects, 2) Loans from IMF and World Bank, 3) Loans from Domestic Banks and 4) Printing Money. He further explained that loans from IMF and World Bank will have to of flexible conditions and the government must effectively negotiate for that. While the government has already reached the annual limit on borrowing loans from domestic banking sector, this is not a preferable option. The last resort is printing money, which has macroeconomic consequences. If the situation requires such measures, it must be undertaken cautiously.

Dr. Raihan also emphasized on a guideline for distributing the stimulus package. He recommended that loan defaulters must not be included in the coverage of this package. He also opined that the guideline can be developed in consultation with business leaders.

Following are the brief points the Forum discussed and proposed:

• A monitoring committee is necessary for the distribution of stimulus package and relief programs. However, for the monitoring committee to be effective, political commitment is necessary. The committee must be non-conventional and empowered.
• We should not be concerned with fiscal deficit.
• Flow in remittance will be affected. Most of the immigrant workers were in informal sectors. Including the repatriating workers in the national economy needs a different approach which can include loans with small interest and various technical support
• We do not have much to do in regards of increasing the world demand as the whole world will be in recession. But stimulus for other sectors is necessary for increasing product diversity.
• Relief and development efforts have to be decentralized. Initiatives by the youth in localities, for assisting the poor and vulnerable are very important.
• Targeting lower middle income or lower income families who are in risk of turning poor is quite difficult. However, they can be provided with cash subsidy as well as relief. For urban areas rationing system can be very effective. Specialized transfer of cash for the lower middle income or lower income individuals can be also effective. Monitoring and transparency must be ensured in this process.
• A Helpline can be set up for assessing the needs and situation of the people and providing support.
• To re-establish the supply chain, Ministry of Agriculture, Home Ministry, Ministry of Health and Ministry of Transport must work together.
• Subsidy for small industries can be raised. Tax can be waivered for raw materials for small industries. Since small industries will face problem in borrowing loans from banks, the associations of these small industries can be involved in this case. The support programs also need to address workers and employees of these small industries.
• Discussion on growth rate is irrelevant now. However, there will be a fall in growth rate.
• SANEM is running some micro simulations using household survey and labor force survey, on how poverty and vulnerability increases in different scenarios. Impacts on labor market, household consumption, food poverty are also being examined in these micro simulations. Similar studies might be helpful for planning the details of a recovery plan.
• Social protection strategies must be prioritized. Social security programs have to be coordinated. Monitoring of these programs should be strengthened.
• Various regulations for SMEs can be relaxed.
• Mental health, social anarchy, rise in crime should be a concern. Telecoms should cut call-rates.
• There is reason to be concerned about job opportunities for educated people. Private sector will shrink. Policymakers must address this.
• Light engineering products can be allocated a special stimulus package.
• A Hotline for reporting domestic violence should be established. Ministry for Women and Home Ministry can collaborate on this.
• Demand shock in agriculture will increase poverty. Transfer of food by co-ordinate actions from the Government and NGOs can reduce this shock and motivate the farmers to be in production as this will also stabilize price.
• Trade among SAARC countries can be increased to mitigate economic shock. Exchange of medical assistance and experience among these countries can also be very helpful.
• VAT exemptions in some cases can be considered.

List of Participants :

1. Dr. Selim Raihan, Executive Director, SANEM, and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

2. Dr. Sayema Haque Bidisha, Research Director, SANEM, and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

3. Mohammed Shahidul Islam, Deputy General Manager, Rahimafrooz Bangladesh Limited

4. Sovik Mukherjee, Assistant Professor in Economics, St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata

5. Md. Jahid Ebn Jalal, Senior Research Associate, SANEM

6. Nazrul Islam, Lecturer, Department of Economics, Rabindra University, Bangladesh

7. Farjana Eyasmin, Lecturer, Department of Economics, Pabna University of Science and Technology

8. Abul Kalam Azad, Banker, Islami Bank Bangladesh Limited

9. Shadlee Rahman, Researcher, UNDP Bangladesh

10. ABM Farhad Al Karim, Migration Capacity Development Expert, Helvetas Bangladesh

11. Monira Parvin, Knowledge Management Specialist, Bangladesh Red Crescent Society

12. Md. Khalid Hossain, Financial Education and Business Development Expert, Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation (HSI)

13. Farian Tahrim, Management Trainee Officer, Trust Bank Limited

14. Eshrat Sharmin, Research Associate, SANEM

15. Jonaed, Research Associate, SANEM

16. Mir Ashrafun Nahar, Research Associate, SANEM

17. Md. Tuhin Ahmed, Research Associate, SANEM

18. Fabiha Bushra Khan, Research Associate, SANEM

19. Jabun Naher, Research Associate, SANEM

20. Md. Abdul Aahad, Student, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

21. Sumiya Rahman, Student, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

22. Kanjilal Roy Jibon, Student, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

23. Shadman Sakib Zahin, Student, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

24. G.M. Atik Shahriar, Student, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka

25. Mohammed Akmol Uddin, Student, University of Dhaka

26. Golam Kibria Limon, Student, University of Rajshahi

27. Zahin Ferdous Maesha, Student, Bangladesh University of Professionals

28. Shaugat Ashraf Khan, Student, Department of Economics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology

28. Sayed Arafat Zubayer, Department of Economics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology

29. Sakib Mahmud, Student, Department of Economics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology

30. Rakib Khondker, Student, Rabindra University, Bangladesh

31. Ashib Uddin Emo, Student, Jagannath University

32. Ali Ahmed, Student, Govt Titumir College, Dhaka

33. Piyas Dey, Student, Metropolitan University, Sylhet

34. Md Asiful Islam Shanto, Student, Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology (RUET)

35. Abrar Jawad, Student, Bangladesh International School and College

36. Arafat Hussain, Student

37. Shoaib Ahamad, Programme Associate, SANEM

38. Nayeem Rahman Khan, Intern, SANEM

39. Jasia Tahzeeda, Student, BRAC University

40. Rafiul Ahmed, Student, Department of Economics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology

41. Faria Tabassum, Research Assistant, Institute for Policy, Advocacy and Governance